State of the Insurance Market Report

2025 Initial Outlook and 2024 Wrap-Up

Employee Benefits

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Constant change is the norm for employee benefits, and it is influenced by many factors from economic conditions to medical and digital innovation to multi-jurisdictional regulations, among others. In our initial outlook for 2024, we saw changing workforce and hiring dynamics, increased impacts from turnover, and the fast pace of pharmacy innovation trends. We anticipated increased medical utilization, inflationary pressure, and changes in admitting and billing patterns to play a significant role in raising costs for employers.

Market Conditions

As we look toward the end of 2024 and into the first few months of 2025, all impacts initially forecasted are anticipated to continue, but with the following shifts:

  • Focus on equity and employee experience: While employers will continue thinking more holistically about their benefits programs, they will shift benefits to better serve a diverse and multigenerational workforce inclusive of social determinants of health.
  • Pharmacy’s influence on cost trends: The pharmacy innovation observed over the past year is expected to continue but with new opportunities for employers to offer more cost-effective treatments in higher cost drug categories by using competitively priced alternatives. More questions are anticipated to arise around GLP-1 drugs and their potential health benefits, which could result in higher usage and a significant cost burden for employers.
  • Transparency and fiduciary responsibility: Legislation that increases scrutiny of/or highlights the fiduciary responsibilities of employers has led to a growing number of lawsuits. Continued finger-pointing about the lack of transparency in pharmacy costs is anticipated, as evidenced in litigation faced by Johnson & Johnson and Wells Fargo.
  • Health system consolidation impacts: Further consolidation of the healthcare delivery system is highly likely and will increase focus on data security and interoperability. Data security requirements, new expectations, and related requirements, while needed, will hamper the speed at which the consolidation occurs due to the investment necessary.

Coverage Considerations

  • Pharmacy trends: Significant consideration needs to be given to current and expected pharmacy trends. Key areas for employers to focus on over the next year include GLP-1 drugs (for diabetes and obesity), specialty pharmacy including biosimilars and cell and gene therapy (ultra-high-cost drugs), and fiduciary responsibility.
    • GLP-1 drugs: GLP-1s will continue to be a major driving factor given the drug class has a significant pipeline with alternate formulations (oral) and multiple additional indications being studied.
    • Biosimilars: This area continues to offer opportunities for employers, with several Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBM) announcing their Humira biosimilar strategies through 2025. As more biologics become available as biosimilars, employers may have the potential to offer additional cost-effective treatments in higher-cost drug categories by using competitively priced alternatives.
    • Cell & Gene Therapies: Ongoing approvals can be expected with numerous therapies now Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved, including the costliest therapy priced at $4.25M. Value-based arrangements are expected to be the core of the solution, complemented by stop loss insurance, clinical management, provider network management, and outcomes tracking to form a comprehensive solution.
Employee Benefits Rate Forecast
Medical: +7% to +11%*
*Trend will vary regionally based on the healthcare delivery system and funding mechanism
Prescription Drugs, Retail: +9% to +10.5%
Prescription Drugs, Specialty: +14% to +16.5%
Stop Loss Premium, Leveraged Trend: +16% to +19%

Recommendations

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Anticipate scrutiny on benefits management:
Employers (particularly large employers) should anticipate scrutiny on benefit management oversight given the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is investigating PBM practices. Employers should work with their PBM to ensure contractual language provides transparency and includes appropriate audit allowances. Additionally, employers should be aware of employee benefits-related legislation and rulings. Multi-state employers are advised to pay extra attention to litigation trends as agency regulations may be vacated in certain jurisdictions but affirmed in others.

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Analyze opportunities to manage spend:
Employers are advised to look at all available possibilities to manage spend including evaluating your current health plan financing model against alternative funding methods. Ultimately it comes down to an employer’s tolerance for risk and ability to effectively administer programs that help achieve their benefits strategy. Keep in mind, the smaller the organization, the higher the impact of cost volatility with fewer options to mitigate future increases.

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Keep a close eye on pharmacy and evaluate it regularly:
Given the rapid pace of innovation in pharmacy, employers should plan for a strategy that balances pharmacy cost while ensuring sustainable coverage and outcomes. For example, some larger self-funded employers are beginning to require contracts that allow for annual market checks to help keep costs competitive; however, this may not be an option for all employers.

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The contents of this report are for general informational purposes only and Risk Strategies Company makes no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, regarding the accuracy or completeness of any information contained herein. Any recommendations contained herein are intended to provide insight based on currently available information for consideration and should be vetted against applicable legal and business needs before application to a specific client.