State of the Insurance Market Report

2024 Initial Outlook:
Casualty Insurance

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Market Updates

Overall, higher premiums and increased investment returns have helped insurers improve their long-term outlook. However, several trends continue to spur uncertainty in the casualty market. For example, in the second year of post-pandemic court activity, we are seeing increasingly large settlements. Carriers find it difficult to predict losses and price coverage appropriately. Pricing is now more complicated and subject to frequent changes.

Coverage Considerations

Auto Liability

Rates continue to increase as underwriters experience ongoing losses driven by:

  • Repair costs rising faster than general inflation
  • Escalating severity of claims and nuclear verdicts
  • Third-party litigation funding increasing the power of plaintiffs’ attorneys

It continues to become harder to insure standalone auto in this market. Insurers want to package auto with more profitable lines to offset worsening auto loss ratios and spread the risk. We expect rates to rise between 5% and 25% based on industry and client loss experience, commitment to loss control, location, radius of operation, driver records, and other factors.

Workers’ Compensation

Insurers continue to see this coverage line as a bright spot. Claims frequency decreased in 2023, falling below pre-COVID-19 levels. Premiums in 2023 stayed relatively flat, ranging from 0% to 5% in the 3rd Quarter of 2023. In the coming years, medical inflation, the aging workforce, and state rating agency decisions could lead to more dramatic increases in rates and claims.

Rate Forecast
Casualty - Auto: +5% to +20%
Casualty - Workers' Compensation: Flat to +5%
Casualty - General Liability: +1% to +10%
Casualty - Umbrella: +1% to +20%

General Liability and Umbrella

As a line of business, general liability still finds itself experiencing hard market underwriting and pricing. However, for clients with good loss history, as well as quality and timely underwriting submissions, they will find more favorable underwriting terms and conditions. Litigation and inflation persist as major concerns. Larger jury verdicts and settlements continue to drive pricing higher, especially in bodily injury and property damage claims stemming from product liability.

Overall, we expect price increases of 5% to 15% depending on loss experience, industry, and risk improvements.

The umbrella market remains challenging, especially for companies with larger fleets and the transportation industry in particular. However, several new carriers have entered the market, increasing capacity and options for clients. Though this hasn’t led to a “softening”, Risk Strategies expects umbrella rate increases to ease in the coming year.

We anticipate increases of 5% to 35% depending on loss experience, industry, attachment points, and the policy limit you buy.

The ongoing claim severity is driving uncertainty within GL and Umbrella as insurers cautiously reduced the size of their premium increases. Higher increases in 2024 will be expected if these loss trends continue their rapid rise.

Exceptionally Challenging Risks and Industries

Several categories of risks face increased underwriting scrutiny:

  • Habitational/residential real estate and construction
  • Several manufacturing sectors, such as sports equipment, chemicals, firearms, and pharmaceuticals
  • Education and nonprofits due to sexual abuse concerns
  • Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS)
  • Transportation

Recommendations

  • Renew early, 90 to 120 days in advance if possible.
  • Have consistent conversations with brokers and underwriters to understand any changes that may be coming, so you can mitigate any potential for non-renewal.
  • Ensure that your submission paints your business as a high-quality risk. Include detailed information that tells your story.
  • Be prepared to employ additional insurers to complete your excess liability program.

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The contents of this report are for general informational purposes only and Risk Strategies Company makes no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, regarding the accuracy or completeness of any information contained herein. Any recommendations contained herein are intended to provide insight based on currently available information for consideration and should be vetted against applicable legal and business needs before application to a specific client.