State of the Insurance Market:
2025 Outlook

Relocation

The first quarter of 2025 reflects a continuation of trends that emerged in 2024 within the global relocation and household goods moving market. A combination of economic and housing market dynamics, along with ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal and immigration policies, continues to shape both domestic and international relocation activity.

While certain industry segments experienced short-term volume increases in quarter three 2024, early shipment data from January and February 2025 indicate signs of stagnation in relocation volumes.

Market Conditions

 

Although U.S. mortgage interest rates remain relatively low from a historical perspective, they have risen significantly since 2019. Between 2022 and 2024, rates averaged 6.29%, a sharp increase from the 3.32% average recorded between 2019 and 2021. At the same time, housing inventory remains tight, keeping home prices elevated. These factors have led to fewer employees wanting to relocate and fewer corporations willing to absorb the rising costs associated with staff relocations.

This reluctance to move has significantly impacted corporate relocations both domestically and internationally. While industries such as hospitality, finance, and manufacturing have maintained relatively stable corporate move volumes, the technology sector has experienced a sharp decline. From 2022 to 2024, some tech companies saw relocation volumes drop by as much as 85%, highlighting the sector’s ongoing uncertainty when it comes to investing in their workforce mobility needs.

Several factors are expected to continue influencing overall relocation volumes, including housing shortages in major metropolitan regions across Europe - highlighted by demonstrations in Spain, Portugal, and Germany in April of 2024. Political instability and ongoing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East further compound these challenges.

Corporate relocations remain vital not only for individual companies but also for both local and global economies. In response, some employers are enhancing relocation packages, offering support for home buying and selling, flexible moving timelines, and financial assistance to attract and retain talent.

Traditionally, the peak relocation season runs from May to August. However, in 2024, we observed a shift, with high volumes beginning in July and extending into early October. It remains to be seen whether this was a one-time anomaly or an indication of a broader change in the moving season.

Technology and more flexible employment policies are impacting relocation volumes worldwide as well. Companies are recognizing the importance of offering tailored benefits that align with the unique priorities of employees in different regions around the world.

The U.S. domestic moving industry awaits the potential significant impact of the Global Household Goods Contract (GHC) which was awarded to the HomeSafe Alliance by U.S. Transportation Command (USTRANSCOM) at the end of 2021. While the program was projected to be fully operational by the summer of 2024, HomeSafe has only moved a few hundred shipments under the GHC so far instead of the tens of thousands that were anticipated. The overall success of the GHC is yet to be determined in the coming years.

Coverage Considerations

 
  • Pressure on coverage rates to maintain manageable loss ratios persists. Clients with adverse loss ratios should assess whether the valuation basis for their shipments is adequate, considering that household goods costs have increased more than 20% in the past three years.
  • Underwriters are continuously reevaluating coverage levels for major loss categories such as mold and mildew remediation, which may result in reduced coverage offerings and/or caps.
  • Clients may wish to consider retaining more risk to obtain more favorable rates, which could positively impact their overall loss ratios.

Relocation Rate Forecast

 
Rate Forecast
Relocation +4% to +6%

Recommendations

 

As the number of qualified underwriters offering household goods and relocation coverage continues to shrink, clients should be aware that securing new markets for their insurance needs will become increasingly challenging. Maintaining a manageable net loss ratio will be critical to preserving existing relationships with underwriters. To achieve that, we recommend clients:

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Gather relevant shipment and claims data for both origins and destinations and apply targeted analytics to identify suppliers or trade lanes responsible for disproportionate losses.

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Implement mitigation strategies to reduce the frequency and severity of recurring damage or loss claims.

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Introduce a deductible or loss participation fee for service providers to lower direct claim costs.

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Relocation Practice

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The Risk Strategies Relocation practice understands the challenges and offers the insurance products and risk management services necessary to protect your business.

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The contents of this report are for general informational purposes only and Risk Strategies Company makes no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, regarding the accuracy or completeness of any information contained herein. Any recommendations contained herein are intended to provide insight based on currently available information for consideration and should be vetted against applicable legal and business needs before application to a specific client.