State of the Insurance Market:
2025 Outlook

Private Equity

After a three-year decline in private equity (PE) activity due to elevated interest rates, high deal valuations, uncertainty around the 2024 presidential election, and market uncertainty, investment bankers were once again very optimistic about the state of the M&A market at the end of Q4 2024. But once again, they were wrong.

The new presidential administration's pro-business approach and high levels of dry powder — or cash reserves set aside for potential investments — were expected to lead to increased merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in 2025. But the M&A market has three legs to the stool: corporate M&A, where the above predictions were based on sound logic; venture, which borrows less money; and private equity, which we believe will be very challenged.

Market Conditions

 

Private equity firms suffer from a lack of quality assets available in the market, interest rate uncertainty, lofty seller expectations for price, and LP’s who want distributions, not capital calls, after many years of light distributions. Finally, the PE-to-PE market, which historically drove a lot of activity in the middle market, has ground to a halt. While LP’s want distributions, they want them at or above the valuations that the Funds are carrying them at on their financials. As buyers are dropping the prices they are offering, this disconnect has caused closed deal volume to plummet.

The directors and officers (D&O) market remains competitive and trending toward greater stabilization in the next 12 months. The pace of D&O premium decreases has slowed, as compared to the steeper price declines seen in 2022-2024. D&O underwriters closely watch securities class actions and several risk trends to determine the sustainability of the soft market in the long term. These concerns are driven by rising litigation costs and the growing complexity of D&O risks as outlined below:

  • Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) and backlash: The new administration is rolling back initiatives mandating ESG disclosures related to diversity, equity, inclusion (DE&I) and climate risks, viewing these as unnecessary compliance burdens. In January 2025, two Executive Orders went into effect that restricted DE&I initiatives, particularly with respect to federal agencies, programs, contracts, and hiring. This has created uncertainty for private sector employers on how to move forward with their DE&I programs. Companies may follow suit in scaling back their DE&I initiatives which may lead to a renewed wave of discrimination lawsuits aimed at DE&I practices and policies that favor one group over another in compensation and hiring.
  • Artificial intelligence (AI): AI is rapidly reshaping the workplace, enhancing productivity, streamlining operations, and transforming job roles across various industries. AI technology has sparked increasing litigation and a complex regulatory environment, suggesting continued legal challenges and regulatory actions in the future. To date, much of the AI litigation has involved "AI washing," where companies are overstating their AI capabilities. Going forward, we expect to see more litigation involving failure to disclose AI risks and misuse of AI tools. AI-related disclosure requirements have spurred actions from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for misleading investors about AI-enabled services. The EU passed a stringent AI law with severe penalties, and U.S. states like Colorado and California are enacting their own laws.
  • Securities and Exchange Commission: In 2025, the SEC’s enforcement priorities are expected to shift in several key areas which align with the new administration’s focus on deregulation and capital formation. The SEC may have a renewed focus on reducing regulatory burdens, adhering to established materiality standards, curbing perceived enforcement overreach, and generally adopting an enforcement agenda more favorable to corporations. A Republican-controlled SEC will likely favor smaller penalties and adhere tightly to disgorgement limitations set by the Supreme Court. Likewise, companies that undertake proactive remediation may receive more cooperation credit.
  • Cybersecurity and data privacy: As cyber threats become more sophisticated and pervasive, companies are under increased pressure to protect sensitive data and ensure compliance with a patchwork of federal and state data protection regulations. New lawsuits, such as those against CrowdStrike, reflect evolving trends focusing on IT disruptions and self-inflicted malware issues rather than traditional breaches. The SEC may take a more conservative approach to corporate disclosures and cybersecurity cases, focusing on material financial impacts rather than speculative risks. This includes a potential re-evaluation of the SEC’s approach to cybersecurity disclosure enforcement, moving away from regulation by enforcement and providing clearer guidance to companies.

Cryptocurrency Funds

The current administration is anticipated to significantly benefit digital asset fund managers and their portfolio companies. In January 2025, Executive Order 14178, titled "Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology," was signed. This revoked previous directives and prohibited the establishment of a central bank digital currency. The order established a group tasked with proposing a federal regulatory framework for digital assets within 180 days. In parallel, the SEC created a new crypto task force to develop a sensible regulatory path for crypto assets. The administration’s shift from enforcement actions to regulatory clarity was quickly evident. Notably, on January 23, 2025, the SEC rescinded SAB 121 which opens the door for banks to explore custody solutions along with other innovative use cases. In February, the SEC closed its investigation into Robinhood’s crypto activities without pursuing an enforcement action and dropped accusations that Coinbase was operating an unregistered exchange and listing unregistered securities.

While these developments are positive for the crypto ecosystem, most traditional insurers remain hesitant to participate until clear regulatory guidelines are in place. Insurance options remain limited, with a small number of specialized insurers underwriting the majority of policies. Additionally, policy terms and conditions are generally more restrictive than those available to businesses in traditional industries.

The crypto industry is rapidly expanding, with numerous newly established digital asset managers and crypto-related companies seeking comprehensive insurance solutions. Clients are rounding out their insurance programs by purchasing additional policies, including cyber, crime, and kidnap and ransom insurance. As the number of policyholders and policies purchased increases, premiums may soften, and more favorable terms and conditions will become available.

Management Liability Update

  • Securities class action trends: Securities class actions represent the most significant severity risk for public company D&O insurers; therefore, underwriters closely watch these filings as an indicator of their loss experience and profitability. According to NERA, the number of federal court securities class action lawsuit filings in 2024 was 229, significantly elevated from 206 in 2022 and 212 in 2021. In addition, in 2024 the average settlement value was $43M, although slightly below the 2023 inflation-adjusted average settlement value of $46M, this was significantly elevated from prior years from 2019-2021.
  • Initial public offering (IPO) outlook: After three years of constrained IPO activity relative to historical averages, the IPO outlook in 2025 continues to be challenging given the current market volatility caused by the announced U.S. tariffs. As of April 2025, companies that were close to filing IPOs or launching roadshows are taking a wait-and-see approach and delaying their IPO until market conditions improve. IPO activity will likely focus on high-quality companies in sectors less affected by trade policy and where peer valuations remain strong. Companies that were planning IPOs will likely need to adjust their multiples and valuations to be attractive to investors in this current market environment.

Insurer Capacity/Trends

  • There are opportunities for cost savings from newer market entrants who are looking to build market share. Established carriers are more likely to maintain rates where they feel they can maintain profitability.
  • Competition amongst primary capacity providers continues to be strong — especially for those companies with strong financial performance and favorable loss history.
  • Excess capacity remains plentiful. Many Insureds are taking advantage of lower excess rates to increase their policy limits year over year.
  • Insurers are increasingly using data analytics and AI, enabling them to better assess and price risk and to tailor their offerings.
  • Consider carrier multi-year deals with annual installments and refreshed annual aggregate limits, allowing clients to lock in rates and avoid lengthy underwriting and renewal processes.
  • D&O insurers are increasing the number of ancillary lines they offer, such as crime, employment practices liability, and fiduciary liability, as they look to generate additional income and secure lines on the D&O program.
  • Firms with crypto, cannabis, alcohol, and firearms exposures will continue to have a limited number of insurers willing to entertain the risk.

Representations and Warranties Update

The representations and warranties (R&W) market has been a roller coaster ride. By the end of 2021, the premium rate hit its high, and capacity was limited amidst heavy M&A activity. Fast forward to 2023, and rates came down substantially due to more R&W capacity as well as the underwriting teams expanding headcount. For the first three quarters of 2024, rates remained lower. However, in the fourth quarter of 2024, carriers were divided on rates. The larger and more mature carriers began to increase their rates above 3% rate on line (ROL) due to the increase in claim payments. The smaller and newer players have maintained the lower ROL (2.5% or less) from 2023 and 2024. It remains to be seen if the larger players succumb to the pressure of their competitors and bring down their pricing or if they are willing to give up market share to maintain what they believe is a reasonable premium level to offset losses. The aforementioned will depend on if M&A activity picks up in 2025 from its anemic pace of 2023 and 2024. The consensus of the experts at the end of 2024 was M&A would pick up substantially in 2025, but at this point that prediction has not come to fruition.

Private Equity Rate Forecast

 

NOTE: Our rate forecast for 2025 assumes exposures (assets under management, revenues, assets, employee count) are relatively stable year over year and a favorable loss history.

Rate Forecast
D&O Public Flat to -10%
D&O Private Flat to -10%
General Partnership Liability (D&O/E&O for PE/VC) Flat to -5%
Cyber Flat to -10%

Recommendations

 
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Take advantage of the current competitive D&O market conditions. Although pricing has stabilized, markets are willing to expand coverage and offer higher sub-limits on antitrust and entity investigations.

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Adopt a proactive approach to cyber risk management:
- Conduct regular risk assessments to identify vulnerabilities and assess the impact of a cyber incident on your company.

- Invest in employee training to educate employees on cybersecurity best practices to avoid phishing and wire fraud.

- Ensure you have an updated Incident Response Plan to prepare for a potential cyber incident, including procedures for reporting claims and utilizing pre-approved vendors permitted by your cyber policy.

- Utilize breach counsel to maintain confidentiality during an investigation. In doing so, this will preserve attorney-client privilege for advice and strategic planning, protect sensitive information, and ensure effective legal representation.

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The contents of this report are for general informational purposes only and Risk Strategies Company makes no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, regarding the accuracy or completeness of any information contained herein. Any recommendations contained herein are intended to provide insight based on currently available information for consideration and should be vetted against applicable legal and business needs before application to a specific client.